If Inflation Is ‘Down,’ Why Aren’t Prices Going Down?

BSF-0317 · Behind the Numbers

A Lower Inflation Rate Means Prices Are Rising More Slowly, Not Falling

The Fact

CPI-based inflation was 4.12% in 2023 and 2.89% in 2024. The rate fell, but prices still rose in 2024 — by 2.89% on top of 2023's prices. Prices fall only when inflation is below zero, which economists call deflation.

What This Means

When the news says inflation "cooled," it means prices went up more slowly. It does not mean prices came back down.

Why It Matters

This is why 'inflation is down' can be true while groceries and rent still cost more than last year.

Sources

OfficialData.org. “$72,000 in 2018 → 2026 | Inflation Calculator,” using BLS CPI-U data. https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/2018?amount=72000

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Consumer Price Index: Questions and Answers.” https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm

Evidence as of: 2026

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